by Tharien van Eck, AWC Antwerp and Health Team Co-Chair
December 27 is the International Day of Epidemic Preparedness. We are still recovering from the very significant impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, but must acknowledge that the next pandemic is a highly likely event, and perhaps not that far in the future. It is not a question of if, but when it will occur!
The purpose of this short article is not to provide a detailed overview of potential pathogens that could cause the next pandemic, but to highlight some of the work that is being done to prepare the world for the next pandemic, and our role in aiding and abetting it.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating impact on human lives and created havoc in social and economic development. Already overstretched health care systems were overwhelmed, and the impact on global supply chains was catastrophic.
What became very clear was that years of warnings from public health officials, infectious disease experts and scientists have been ignored. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted global inequalities, including vaccine availability, access to health care and access to education, with a disproportionate impact on the poorest countries.
What is Disease X? This name was coined in 2018, when the World Health Organization added Disease X to a list of pathogens that would become top priorities for research. The focus was on the most serious emerging infectious diseases for which treatment options were available. COVID-19 became Disease X in 2020. Scientists have already indicated that there is a vast reservoir of viruses circulating in wildlife that could be the sources for a future pandemic.
According to a study published in The British Medical Journal, spillover (viruses that spill over from animals to humans) will increase twelve-fold by 2050 due to environmental changes. Several viruses have already been named for their potential to cause the next pandemic: Ebola, Marburg, SARS, Nipah, as well as the Ebola-like Machupo virus.
The Ebola and Marburg viruses cause hemorrhagic fevers, with bleeding from all bodily orifices and/or internal organs. The mortality rate of these viruses is very high, around 50% (and could be as high as 90%). There are vaccines available for two of the Ebola strains, but not for the others. And there is no vaccine available yet for Marburg.
Bats and other animals often are seen as the cause of human disease. This is incorrect; they are hosts or sources of new human diseases. It is the activities of humans that are the facilitators of the transferal of pathogens from animals to humans. Preventing spillover must therefore concentrate on the interaction of humans with other species, and how we as humans continue to take care of the world.
One example of this is the thawing of the permafrost in the Arctic Circle, releasing organic matter which has been frozen for millions of years. The decomposing of organic matter contributes to the release of carbon dioxide and methane, exacerbating the greenhouse effect. This organic matter also contains viruses that have been dormant since prehistorical times. Viruses are also found in melting glazier ice and then released into connecting water sources.
An example of the evidence and potential impact of the above is a lung sample, taken from a body exhumed from permafrost in Alaska, which contained genomic material from the influenza strain responsible for the 1918 pandemic.
In conclusion, there is an urgent need to have more robust health systems, exchange of information, scientific research and sharing of knowledge at the local, national, regional and global levels. Can the next pandemic be prevented? The answer most probably is no. Can we be better prepared? Hopefully, yes!
Sources:
- What Is Disease X? How Scientists Are Preparing for the Next Pandemic | The Transmission | University of Nebraska Medical Center
- Filoviruses like Ebola, SARS, and the Nipah and Machupo viruses could fuel the next pandemic, new research says | Fortune Well
- Zoonotic spillover: Understanding basic aspects for better prevention - PMC
- An Update on Eukaryotic Viruses Revived from Ancient Permafrost.
- Climate change and glacier melting: risks for unusual outbreaks? | Journal of Travel Medicine | Oxford Academic