From November 30 - December 11 2015, world leaders will meet in Paris for the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Negotiations on climate change began at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, which launched the UNFCCC – a framework aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. The UNFCCC's 195 member countries or COP meet annually to review implementation of the framework.
Global negotiations on climate change have been going on for over 20 years, as scientists have established that rising greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels lead to higher temperatures. Current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions run out in 2020, so governments need to agree on commitments through 2030 and beyond.
Why is this important?
Scientists have warned that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, we will pass the threshold beyond which global warming becomes catastrophic and irreversible. That threshold is estimated as a temperature rise of 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and on current emissions trajectories. That may not sound like much, but the temperature difference between today’s world and the last ice age was about 5°C, so seemingly small changes in temperature can mean big differences for the Earth. For the first time in 20 years of UN negotiations, COP21 will aim to achieve legally binding agreement on keeping global warming below 2°C.
Getting agreement from 195 countries is never easy, and there are many challenges. Climate summits have in the past been thwarted by the US and China, which have been reluctant to sacrifice economic growth for reduced emissions.
What are the present agreements?
The industrial countries responsible for as much as 2/3rds of global emissions have already committed to cutting emissions: the EU by 40% compared with 1990 levels, by 2030; the US by 26-28% compared with 2005 levels, by 2025; China has agreed that its emissions will peak by 2030.
Nations responsible for more than 90% of global emissions have now come up with their targets – known in the UN jargon as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, or INDCs. These include all of the major developed and developing countries, though their contributions vary: in the case of developed countries, actual cuts in emissions, but for developing countries a range of targets including limits on emissions compared to “business as usual”, and pledges to increase low-carbon energy or preserve forests. However, some countries, most notably India, have not yet made commitments.
If the commitments from the major countries are in the bag, does that mean the Paris agreement is settled?
Not at all – the other key question, apart from emissions reductions, is finance. Poor countries are demanding financial assistance to invest in clean technology and adapt to the anticipated impacts of climate change. But the parties disagree about whether the funding should come from rich countries' governments, international development banks, or the private sector.
This is a hugely contentious issue and must be a cornerstone of any Paris agreement! An agreement on this is still possible, but it will be one of the main obstacles to a Paris deal. Government negotiators will focus on the details of unresolved issues, and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon will push leaders to resolve differences and make tough policy choices.
Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC: "The Paris UN Climate Conference represents an historic opportunity to put the world on course to meet the climate change challenge. The world needs a new model of growth that is safe, durable and beneficial to all. COP21 seeks to deliver a clear pathway with short and long term milestones, and a system to help us measure and increase progress over time until we get the job done. The Paris Agreement is not only possible, it is necessary and urgent. We are counting on everyone’s contribution."
Sources:
United Nations | Conference on Climate Change: http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/learn/