The UN Climate Conference in Paris begins today and the news has been filled with preparations for this historic meeting. After the recent horrific terrorist attacks in the city, the eyes of the world are on Paris as they struggle to reassert their confidence, and provide adequate safety for their fellow Parisians as well as for those attending the Climate top. There will be many world leaders present and they’ll be joined by hundreds of staff members and other international participants. The challenges are great, not only for the climate discussions and agreements which will take place, but for the logistical and safety requirements that are necessary in these tense times. I wish the French well with the later task and the Conference participants the wisdom needed to do well with the former.
Before we start blogging about the Climate Conference itself, I’d like to share some information from a series of articles that was in a local Dutch newspaper this past week. I think one of the biggest challenges for “regular people” like you and me is not to be overwhelmed by the amount and complexity of data that is swirling around about Climate Change. While I am relatively well educated, I remain a “lay person” with regard to environmental issues and always find it a challenge to accurately narrow my focus to the most essential issues. I was therefore very pleased with the series of articles titled “Five Big Questions About the Climate” in my local newspaper and thought I’d share the questions and a short summary of the conclusions with you.
Five Big Questions About the Climate
- Can the forests still be saved? – Deforestation is an important issue at the Climate Conference. After the burning of coal, oil and gas, deforestation is the most important cause of climate change and is indirectly accountable for 6-12% of the annual CO₂ emissions. Forests are cut down to make room for agriculture. Poor countries want money from more affluent counties to help them retain their forests. By the middle of this century, it is estimated that 36-57% of the ±6000 types of trees in the Amazon will be threatened with extinction (biologist H. ter Steege, Naturalis institute, Leiden NL).
- Yes, the forests can still be saved, but only if everyone assumes their responsibility. However, there is little to indicate this will happen.
- Do we all need to become vegetarians? The cattle breeding sector, responsible for 14% of the greenhouse gas emissions, is growing. Beef and milk production combined are responsible for 60% of the emissions caused by cattle breeding as a whole. The big question is whether the growth of meat consumption – partially caused by the growth of the middle class in the emerging economies – is sustainable. (“An annual increase of 40 million in the number of cows, pigs and sheep is part of official policy.” - Chen Ming, boss of mega cattle farm in China) The production of sufficient food for a growing world population is one of the greatest problems of climate change.
- The knowledge that cattle breeding is a significant contributor of greenhouse gases combined with the fact that it also requires a significant amount of scarce agricultural land, means that it’ s better for the climate to eat less meat.
- 3. Can we get along without fossil fuels? – The era of fossil fuels is coming to an end. Coal, oil and gas emit greenhouse gases that damage the climate. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), we will remain addicted to fossil fuels for the creation of energy for the time being. Since the energy production is responsible for 2/3 of the greenhouse gas emissions, that is a grave fact. The demand for sustainable energy sources grows faster than can be met.
The increase in sustainable energy as a result of the growing population (world population of 9 billion in 2050) and the economic growth in large areas of the world cannot be met either. Subsidies will be a key factor in determining how quickly fossil fuels are phased out.
- Eventually, yes, but for the time being, no. The direction is clear, but the transition to sustainable energy sources moves much too slowly. That transition is very complex and has an endless number of connected parties. Political paralysis, bureaucratic uncertainty and a lack of leadership are the greatest risks.
- 4. Can we adapt in time? – Changes are necessary to protect countries from the effects of the warming of the earth. That will cost money and an important and recurring question is who will pay? While it is the industrial/consumption behavior of the richest countries that has caused the warming of the earth, the poor countries are most affected by it. It is the unlimited emission of greenhouse gases that has given the industrial world wealth, and thus money, which is also what is needed to combat Climate Change. For many developing countries, agriculture – an important source of income – will need to adapt to a changing climate. It may also prove impossible to adapt in some areas, leaving no other choice but to move.
- There will be discussions in Paris about a Climate fund; a fund of $100 billion available annually from 2020. Rich countries want the fund to be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and poor countries want the money to be used to adapt to climate change. Both things are necessary priorities.
- 5. Is climate change really a problem? - Climate change is already a fact. Its effects are visible and the danger is great that the warming process will speed up. If the world continues on the current path with emissions of greenhouse gases insufficiently reduced, the effects will become increasingly serious. Climate science is filled with uncertainties; while things could turn out better than expected, the danger is that in actuality, it will be much worse. The position of tipping points is just such an uncertainty; processes in the climate framework that reinforce each other and are eventually irreversible.
- YES!!
Thanks for your interest in the Climate Conference and do check back in a couple days for an update on what is happening in Paris.
Anne